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The region may see yet another war if Arab states don't pull together and remember the vitality of unity, writes Hassan Nafaa*
Conflicts among countries and nations usually involve material or moral incentives. Some conflicts are motivated by the desire to acquire new markets, land or resources. Others are motivated by the desire to assert one's culture and defend what one holds dear. Our region is at the heart of the world because of its geographical position and also because the world's three major religions were born here. So it's no surprise that we're in the eye of every international storm -- those we instigate as well as those instigated by others.
The option of aloofness is not open to us. There were times in history when we got our act together and consequently ruled the world. There are also times when we fell apart and immediately came under the heel of any number of vying imperial powers. To rule the world, you have to control this region. Everyone knows that.
Since the fall of the Ottoman Empire, feverish attempts have been made to control the region by major international powers. These attempts gained momentum after the end of World War II when it became clear that the region sits on the world's largest oil reserves. As demand on oil strips the supply and as reserves near depletion this region is unlikely to see a moment of peace in the near future. Oil was the implicit or explicit catalyst of most crises that gripped the region since World War II. Invariably the US has been involved: from the time of Mossadegh in Iran to the invasion of Iraq in 2003.
Attempts to divide the region began as soon as the Ottoman Empire ceased to exist. The tactic was always the same: undermine any attempt at unity within the region. Rival international powers went out of their way to ensure that the Islamic caliphate wouldn't be replaced with any other rallying call for oneness. Imperialists tried everything from blackmail to containment, from lies to sheer perfidy, to keep us divided. At one point, they even championed Arab nationalism as an antidote to Islamic identity. Then they hit upon a brilliant idea. They offered unimaginable support to a nascent Zionist movement that wanted to establish a strong Jewish state in the region.
Once the imperial powers succeeded in implanting the State of Israel in the heart of this region, they proceeded to use it not only as a wedge separating the Arab east from the Arab west, but also as a rod with which to punish any country seeking an independent standing. The goals of the imperialists dovetailed with those of the Zionist movement, both wanting to nip any regional unity in the bud.
When Arabism became radical, attempts were made -- in full coordination with Israel -- to undermine it with the help of conservative Islam. When Islam acquired a radical veneer and became a rallying point for unity, the imperialist-Zionist alliance employed both Arabism and conservative Islam to stifle it. Whenever a sign of joint Arab-Islamic revival appeared on the horizon, imperialists took action. Whenever a new promise of renaissance emerged in the region, they wasted no time in fomenting strife -- sectarian, ethnic and tribal.
There is a pattern here. The imperialist-Zionist coalition is trying to liquidate any project for unifying the region. Any attempt at unity is immediately a target, whether it is conservative or radical, pan-Arab or Islamic. Al-Sharif Hussein was a conservative. Gamal Abdel-Nasser was a radical. Both became immediate targets. No matter if you're a conservative Wahhabi or a radical fundamentalist, once you make unity your goal, you've made enemies. Saudi Arabia is a pro-Western Sunni country. Iran is an anti-Western Shia country. Whenever they tried their hand at regional leadership, they were immediately vilified.
There is a pattern of how things are done in this region. And without understanding this pattern, we cannot explain ongoing events in the region. I am not a conspiracy theorist, and I am not saying that the course of events depends on outsiders alone. All I am saying is that a pattern exists.
Now the region stands at the threshold of another war. It is therefore crucial for the Arabs to not keep making the same mistakes. It was our lack of strategic outlook and tendency to think short term and emotionally that got us in trouble in the past. Some of us had grudges against Egypt's Nasser, Iraq's Saddam Hussein, and Palestine's Yasser Arafat. Some wanted them deposed or worse. My question is: who was the main beneficiary of their absence? The downfall of such men, let's admit it, came at a terrible cost. So to those who may feel the same about Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Bashar Al-Assad, Hassan Nasrallah and Khaled Meshaal, I have one thing to say: the region is not going to become a better place without them.
It is tempting to think that the region would be a better place without the "extremists". Think again. Most likely, the region would get into another cycle of violence once the US manages to get such men out of the way. What then? A new crop of even more extremist leaders would step in to fill the vacuum.
When you think of the current Iranian crisis, I would like you to keep a few facts in mind. Fact one: the US, impatient as it is to control Gulf oil, has no intention of withdrawing from Iraq now or in the foreseeable future. It has built and enlarged 20 military bases in Iraq, according to a study by the Canadian Global Research collective. Fact two: Israel is not in a position enticing it, or forcing it, to table a solution meeting the minimum of Palestinian demands. The US administration is neither capable nor willing to force Israel into offering such a solution.
Fact three: Iran has strong negotiating cards and will get the US in trouble if the latter attacks it. Iran's position is strong enough to bring the US to the negotiating table. Should US-Iranian negotiations take place, Iran's influence in the region will grow. Fact four: Should the US attack Iran, which is still a strong possibility, Arab countries will neither be able to stay neutral nor to bring hostilities to an end. Their position would be weakened by the war, regardless of its outcome.
In other words, whether the US attacks Iran or talks to it, Arab countries lose. So the best recourse for Arab moderate countries -- such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and the rest of the Gulf Cooperation Council members -- is to:
Refrain from participating in any negotiations with Israel before the latter accepts the Arab peace initiative. Also Arab countries should seek to unify the ranks of the Palestinian factions in implementation of the Mecca agreement.
Oppose any military strike against Iran and deny US forces the right to use their territories, territorial water, or airspace to attack Iran.
Settle all their differences with Syria as a prelude to reviving the Egyptian-Saudi-Syrian axis. Arab countries should use the Egyptian-Saudi-Syrian axis as leverage in negotiations with Iran. Such negotiations should focus on defusing tensions in Lebanon and Palestine and ending Sunni-Shia disputes.
The above measures constitute, in my opinion, the minimum steps that must be taken to avoid another major crisis in the region. Arab countries have in the past wasted many opportunities to avert crises or put their house in order once the worst was over. Now they may not get a second chance.
The Arab world must remember what happened during and after the crisis of the occupation of Kuwait. One can understand why Arab countries failed to defuse the crisis before it was too late. But one finds hard to understand why all those Arab countries that participated in the liberation of Kuwait and later on issued the "Damascus Declaration" failed to put that declaration into effect.
The Damascus Declaration was supposed to lay a solid foundation for a regional security system, one that integrates Gulf security with that of other countries in the region. The Damascus Declaration could have initiated a new cooperation mechanism and ultimately led to the restructuring of the entire Arab collective system. The failure to implement the Damascus Declaration shows that the real problem of the Arab world is not that it has too many extremists, but that it is being manipulated by foreign interests.
The Arabs can avoid further disappointment, but only if they understand how potentially powerful they are. Suffice it here to refer to the spectacular rise in oil prices that, according to a report published last Saturday in The Washington Post, may lead to a new division of wealth worldwide. Consumers now pay for oil nearly $5 billion a day more than they used to five years ago. Think of that. We have the power, but do we have the sense to use it in a logical way?
* The writer is a professor of political science at Cairo University. |
