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| Afghan invasion entering its inevitable end game |
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| Written by Administrator | |
| Thursday, 20 July 2006 | |
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THERE have been four foreign invasions of Afghanistan in less than 200 years 1839, 1878, 1979 and 2001. The first two were British, and unashamedly imperialist, the third was Soviet and the last was American. But all four invasions were doomed to fail (although the last still has some time to run). When Britain deployed 3300 troops to Helmand province early last month, then-Defence Secretary John Reid said: We hope we will leave Afghanistan without firing a single shot. But six British soldiers have been killed since then, and the new Defence Minister, Des Browne, announced on Monday that the British force is being increased by a further 900 soldiers to cope with unexpected resistance. The Canadian army has lost six soldiers killed in action in Kandahar province since late April, and may soon face the same choice between reinforcing its troops or pulling them back, because the American combat troops in the vicinity are leaving at the end of this month. The US forces are pulling out just in time. A country that has been invaded four times in less than two centuries is bound to know a couple of things about dealing with foreign conquerors. The first thing Afghans have learnt is never to trust them, no matter how pure they say their intentions are. The other thing Afghans know is how to deal with invaders. They will always be richer and better armed, so let them occupy the country. Dont try to hold the cities; fade back into the mountains. Take a couple of years to regroup and set up your supply lines (mostly across the border from Pakistan, this time), and then start the guerilla war in earnest. Ambush, harass and bleed the foreigners for as long as it takes. Eventually they will cut their losses and go home. The end-game is beginning. Hamid Karzai, the Wests chosen leader, is now starting to make deals with the forces that will hold his life in their hands once the foreigners leave the warlords and drug barons. In April, he dropped many candidates who had been approved by the coalition powers from a list of new provincial police chiefs, and substituted the names of known gangsters and criminals who work for the local warlords. He will also have to talk to the Taliban before long. The Taliban that Western troops are now fighting in Afghanistan is more inclusive than the narrow band of fanatics who imposed order on the country in 1996 after seven years of civil war. The present Afghan resistance movement includes farmers trying to protect their poppy fields, nationalists furious at the foreign presence, young men who just want to show that they are as brave as previous generations of Afghans the usual grab-bag of motives that fuels any national resistance movement. Nor is the regime that will eventually emerge after the foreigners have gone home likely to resemble the old Taliban, a Pakistani-backed and almost entirely Pashto-speaking organisation. The foreign invasion overthrew the long domination of the Pashto-speakers (about 40 per cent of the population), and it is most unlikely that Tajiks, Hazaras, Uzbeks, and Turkmen will simply accept that domination again. Afghanistan will not be left to its own devices until after the people who ordered the invasion leave office: presumably next year for Tony Blair, and January, 2009, for George W. Bush. There is time for lots of killing yet but Afghanistan stands a reasonable chance of sorting itself out once the Western armies leave. Source: The Border Morning Mail |
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| Last Updated ( Saturday, 22 July 2006 ) |
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